Yahoo

昨天好像看到有人问这个，不知怎么搞的不见了，不好意思。今天正好看超级杯，顺便写几句。我已经买了不少Yahoo了，如果价位在这附近或更低，我应该还会再买些，就看其他资源调配的情况。我觉得Yahoo便宜的理由非常简单： 1）.现有资产情况（美金）：

Source: http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/126998120101874357462/

Yahoo

> By Duan Yongping · his NetEase blog (nteswjq.blog.163.com, now closed; read from web archives) · 2010-02-08 · [Original link](http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/126998120101874357462/) ([archived](https://web.archive.org/web/20110718094354/http://nteswjq.blog.163.com:80/blog/static/126998120101874357462/))

Yesterday I seemed to see someone ask about this, and somehow it disappeared; sorry.

I happen to be watching the Super Bowl today, so I'll write a few lines while I'm at it.

I've already bought quite a lot of Yahoo. If the price is around here or lower, I'll probably buy some more, depending on how my other resources are allocated.

I think the reasons Yahoo is cheap are very simple:

1). Current assets (US dollars):

Yahoo's market value is now about 21.5 billion, cash about 4.5 billion, and Yahoo's share of Yahoo Japan and the Hong Kong-listed Alibaba company is about 10 billion. So by market value, buying Yahoo now actually costs only about 7 billion. The uncertainty here is that the market value of Yahoo Japan and the listed Alibaba part may change.

2). How much is a Yahoo with a market value (price) of 7 billion worth (value)?

Yahoo's earning power isn't strong now, but it's still 500–700 million a year, and cash flow is even more. If the partnership with Microsoft starts, it can also save 500–600 million a year (I don't know about after 10 years, but that doesn't matter either). In that case Yahoo's annual profit should be over 1 billion. The questions here are: can Yahoo's earning power last? Will the partnership with Microsoft be approved? My personal view is: the current CEO is stronger in management and strategy than before, has no baggage, and can easily do the right thing with a normal mind. In a rising market, with Yahoo's current strategy, I don't see any reason their earning power should fall. As for the partnership with Microsoft, I can't think of any reason any European or American government would oppose it.

To sum up, at this price Yahoo isn't expensive. I see that many American institutional investors buy Yahoo for pretty much the reasons above.

Oh right, I forgot to mention Taobao and Alipay. I can't say how much Taobao and Alipay are worth, but it doesn't seem that important, because whatever they're worth, they come free. But it's not that unimportant either, because this is my biggest reason for buying Yahoo.

I personally think Taobao plus Alipay may be worth 50 billion. The market will probably reflect this within the next 5–10 years. Heh, when the market will reflect it is always unknown; maybe it only takes 5–10 days, if they list tomorrow.