关于估值的一点想法

在这里有很多问题是关于估值的，所以简单谈谈自己的想法。我个人觉得如果需要计算器按半天才能算出来那么一点利润的投资还是不投的好。我认为估值就是个毛估估的东西，如果要用到计算器才能算出来的便宜就不够便宜了。好像芒格也说过，从来没见巴菲特按着计算器去估值一家企业，我好像也没真正用过计算器做估值。

Source: http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/1269981201032503321492/

A few thoughts on valuation

> By Duan Yongping · his NetEase blog (nteswjq.blog.163.com, now closed; read from web archives) · 2010-04-25 · [Original link](http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/1269981201032503321492/) ([archived](https://web.archive.org/web/20100507142056/http://nteswjq.blog.163.com:80/blog/static/1269981201032503321492/))

Many of the questions here are about valuation, so let me briefly give my thoughts.

Personally I think an investment where you need to press a calculator for ages to work out a little profit is better not made.

I think valuation is a rough-estimate thing; if you need a calculator to work out that something is cheap, it isn't cheap enough.

I think Munger also said he'd never seen Buffett press a calculator to value a company, and I don't think I've ever really used a calculator to do a valuation either.

I've always thought a rough valuation is mainly for judging the downside; qualitative analysis is the real source of profit, and this may also be the hardest thing in value investing.

Generally speaking, stocks that make dozens of times or more are never found by valuation; otherwise there'd be no reason investors don't bet everything from the start (if I'd known back then that NetEase would rise 160 times, wouldn't I have bought the whole thing?).

Precisely because qualitative analysis has a lot of uncertainty, in most cases people often don't dare to bet big even when they're optimistic, or even if they bet big they don't dare go all in.

Of course, there are indeed some times when pressing a calculator a bit already makes it feel very cheap, like Buffett buying PetroChina and me buying Vanke. But such cases are often exceptions.

I think valuation when deciding to sell a stock is also a rough estimate. For example, when Vanke rose to 350–360-odd billion, I strongly advised a friend of mine to sell, because I thought it would be very hard for Vanke to keep earning 30-odd billion; spending 300-odd billion to earn an annual profit of under 10 billion really isn't a good idea. If you really like Vanke, you can wait a while; in future there may be a chance to buy back more shares with the same money. Honestly, I quite like Vanke; I think one day I might invest in Vanke again. Next time I invest I'll try to buy more and hold it longer.

Buffett did say great companies and businesses never need to be sold, but so far there are very few companies the old man has never sold. Also, I think the subtext of what Buffett says is that the market often doesn't give great companies a crazy price, and if you sell just because it's a little overvalued, you may lose the chance to buy it back. And in America investors pay capital-gains tax: not selling doesn't count as a gain, and once you sell you may have to pay very high tax, which isn't worth it. All of the above is purely my personal guess.