封仓十年的选择

封仓10年是个很好的思路，选股时就该这么想。我自己还没有过封仓10年的体验，毕竟开始投资才刚刚到第10个年头。这位博主对苹果的看法和我类似，但我不知道我会不会持有苹果10年或以上。实际上我买股票时还真没有想过要拿多少年。我一般会给我买的股票定个大概的价钱，比如买GE时我就认为GE至少值20块…

Source: http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/1269981201132973311701/

The choice of locking up a position for ten years

> By Duan Yongping · his NetEase blog (nteswjq.blog.163.com, now closed; read from web archives) · 2011-04-29 · [Original link](http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/1269981201132973311701/) ([archived](https://web.archive.org/web/20120910021001/http://nteswjq.blog.163.com:80/blog/static/1269981201132973311701/))

http://my.imeigu.com/blog/show/2890

Locking up a position for 10 years is a very good way of thinking; that's how you should think when picking stocks.

I haven't yet had the experience of locking up a position for 10 years myself; after all, I've only just reached my 10th year of investing.

This blogger's view of Apple is similar to mine, but I don't know whether I'll hold Apple for 10 years or more.

In fact, when I buy a stock I really haven't thought about how many years I'll hold it.

I usually set a rough price for the stocks I buy. For example, when I bought GE I thought GE was worth at least 20 dollars, but I really didn't think about how many years it would take to get to 20.

Apple's industry really is one that changes very fast.

Although I think Apple is already in a very favourable position in the competition, I still pay close attention to which changes might alter Apple's position.

If I had to put a price on Apple, I'd probably say Apple might reach 600 dollars someday. The reason: as I understand it, Apple's earnings could probably reach 40–50 dollars per share a year within two to three years (current earning power is about 25–26 dollars per share a year), which means Apple's earning power would come close to doubling within two or three years; add to that more than 100 dollars of cash per share by then (now about 60-something per share), and giving it a price of 600 shouldn't be too excessive, should it?

Will Apple reach a trillion in market value? That depends on how crazy the market is then, and how healthy Jobs is.

Of course, Apple could also fall back to a hundred-something dollars; anyway, we'll all know when the time comes.