安全边际

这段时间老在出差，没什么时间上博客写，但看到大家在讨论安全边际。我其实不完全明白老巴安全边际的意思。我自己对安全边际的理解实际上是自己对要投资的生意的了解度。自己觉得风险越小的投入的比例就可以越大些。比如，在觉得苹果很有投资价值的同时，虽然觉得乔布斯如果离开对苹果一段时间里（比如3-5年）影…

Source: http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/12699812011529114420133/

Margin of safety

> By Duan Yongping · his NetEase blog (nteswjq.blog.163.com, now closed; read from web archives) · 2011-06-29 · [Original link](http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/12699812011529114420133/) ([archived](https://web.archive.org/web/20110705200942/http://nteswjq.blog.163.com:80/blog/static/12699812011529114420133/))

I've been traveling a lot lately and haven't had time to come on the blog and write, but I saw everyone discussing margin of safety.

I actually don't fully understand what Old Buffett means by margin of safety.

My own understanding of margin of safety is really how well I understand the business I'm going to invest in.

The smaller I feel the risk is, the larger the share I can put in.

For example, while I think Apple has great investment value, and although I think that if Jobs left the effect on Apple for a period (say 3–5 years) would be very small, I'm not absolutely certain, so I set the investment cap at 30%. If Jobs were 35 now and in very good health, with everything else the same, I could put in 80–90%.

In short, the margin of safety as I feel it doesn't mean only price.